Samoa Election 2011 strategy
Winning an election has a lot to do with timing and strategy. I have won an election before where I came out of nowhere to win. I was an unknown, but at the time when I studied the election landscape there were certain clues as to where the majority of the candidates were going to get their votes and they were all going to the same place. My strategy was go to the ones they were not courting. These were the votes I got to win while they all split the certain group they were all trying attract and they all got a small number but not enough to win. My lesson learned from this was that elections are a numbers games and the winner always seems to know where to get extra votes in case there is a crush of campaigning for the same segment of the public. Being able to identify the neglected groups is a very important part of winning.
Where can we get the extra votes to defeat HRPP?
HRPP right now are quite overconfident. The timing is perfect to defeat them. But we cannot go to the same well they are drawing water from to get our votes. They have that segment of professional voters sown up. We must go elsewhere. Here is my opinion of where to get new votes.
I believe there are 2 segments of the population that are not being targeted by the HRPP. Samoans from overseas and Youth (21-30 years of age). Everyone is going for the Matais and adults in the villages with their campaign promises and money. These are what I call professional voters. They are not necessarily in it for the best candidate only the candidate that gives them best deal prior to the election. We need to find a new source of votes to tap into.
1. Overseas Samoans with citizenships.
The number of Samoans living overseas in NZ, Australia and the USA is about equal those living in Samoa. I do not know how many still have their Samoan citizenships but in 2006 the number of Samoans in NZ were 131,100 and about 30,000 in Australia, and over 200,000 in the USA as of the 2000 census. That means probably half are from Samoa the rest from American Samoa. So overall there are about 300,000 Samoans from Western Samoa living abroad. The numbers would translate to about 100,000 adults and of those maybe 50-60% are from Samoa with Samoan citizenships. So we have an untapped resource for votes in these countries. The difficulty is convincing them to go home and vote next year or any year. They need to pay for their air fare and bring a Faaoso for the family, but it is a very real resource that needs to be developed and motivated to go home and vote. As I will explain later, another 3-5000 votes spread among the closely contested races in Samoa in 2006 would have changed the outcome of the election. That’s not many when looking at a population of 50,000 votes.
2. The youth of Samoa
The only statistics regarding the youth from Samoa is that about 60% of the population are between 15 and 64 years of age. So that is around 120,000 total. The 21-31 age group would in my approximation be about 30,000 to 40,000 strong. These are another group of voters that I believe are not being mobilized into a voting body. The fact is that there are votes to be gotten we just have to know how to access them. Another 20,000 votes from this group would devastate the HRPP. How do we get these young voters to vote, they may not be so difficult because they live in Samoa already, but as with anything in that age group the hormones rule. If you want the young people to vote they need to be stimulated in a different way from the adults, because they will be voting for an entirely different reason than the adults. The college students need to be mobilized into a voting group. They are the key to these young folks becoming registered to vote and actually going to vote. And the better looking the campaign managers the better chance of the young men and young women coming out to join the organization. Its just a fact. I have dealt with youth all my life I know how they think and what moves them. It will be a fun and active campaign for their votes, but they will follow whomever they feel has the most charisma and attractiveness. In America the Rock the Vote campaign was promoted by the major stars in the media, rappers like P-Diddy, Jay Z, Kanye West and others were getting the word out for young Africa Americans to vote and they did contribute to Obama’s victory. A similar approach would be quite effective in Samoa if we can get the right parties like Savage, Zipso the Rock and others to join us and the College students at NSU to form an organization that would be a very viable group to mobilize and to organize into a voting lobby.
3. Samoans living overseas who go home to get Samoan citizenships.
This is one area I am still researching but when I was in Samoa in 2003 I talked to immigration and was about to get my Samoan Citizenship based on the fact that my parents were Samoan citizens. I have confirmed that this policy is still is available. This means for those of us who are first generation foreign immigrants whether in New Zealand or Australia or the USA, you can go home to Samoa and get a Samoan Passport if your parents were Samoan citizens. If that is the case then my only other question is can they vote or what is the restriction on them voting once they get their citizenship?
4. The Samoan public who normally vote.
These are the more difficult to change because they have ought into the system of corruption and are as I put it “Professional Voters”. But there are some who may be fed up of the HRPP and want change they are the ones who need to be converted to our message.
So if these 4 groups listed above are mobilized and that is a big IF, then we have access to over 200,000 extra voters we can use to unseat the HRPP. Only about 90,000 voters elected the HRPP in the last election.
In the last election the HRPP won 35 seats ad I believe through the course of the aftermath of that election many seats were gained through the legal system that was manipulated by the ruling party to disqualify and remove certain MPs from their seats. The numbers are very easy to decipher, the number of seats needed by any one party to become the power in Samoa is 25. That is the magic number. If a party can win 25 seats then it is over, your party is the winner. Now it would be better to have more in case someone is disqualified, but in an ideal world 25 seats will get you the reigns of power in Samoa.
So based on this number lets look at the election results from 2006. The opponents of the HRPP including the Independents and the SDUP won, at the time of the election, 14 seats. Now if they had gotten 11 more seats and they were a united group they would have won the election. There were about 15 races that were close. These were races where the winner won by less than 300 votes. In some races the winner won by less than 10 votes. In others it was less than a hundred. So if we target the close races with additional voters we can change the outcome by inserting 50 to 300 voters extra to win that close race. In total you are looking at an extra 3000 votes to change the election resuts from landslide for the HRPP to landslide for the opposition.
But the problem is we have no legitimate Opposition. We need to start an opposition or unite behind a single opposition party and mobilize all these voters that we have to change the outcome of the next election.
In my opinion the voters from overseas with Samoan citizenships are the more conscientious voters. They will vote for the right reason. If they will travel enmasse to Samoa and vote they can make the change next year. If someone can mobilize the youth in Samoa into a voting body then they can also be an effective voting body. Can we do this? Can we mobilize before the next election? This is what we need to consider and begin making moves towards that objective or for the following election.
For those who would like to start the ball rolling go to the website www.lauakinamulauu.ning.com and become a member and join the facebook page, Lauaki Namulauulu. More information will be available there as we move forward.
We need to focus our efforts on those races that are close. That is where we can make up the difference and win the elections.
Here is the summary of the last elections.
Vaimauga East
HRRP Tuisugaletaua Sofara Aveau 781 36.2
Independent Maposua Fealofani 760 35.3 -21
Vaimauga West
HRRP Anauli Pofitu Fesili 1422 20.4
SDUP Sililoto Tolo Tuaifaiva 1322 19.0
SDUP Patu Ativalu Togi II 1286 18.4 -136
Faleata East
HRRP Manuleleua Lalagofaatasi Falaniko Leleua 331 73.4
HRRP Lepou Petelo II 120 26.6
Faleata West
Independent Lealailepule Rimoni Aiafi 795 32.4
HRRP Ulu Vaomalo Ulu Kini 630 25.7 keep
Sagaga-Le-Falefa
Independent Solamalemalo Keneti Sio 738 30.0
SDUP Patea Satini Epati 555 22.6 keep
Sagaga-Le-Usoga
Independent Muagututagata Peter Ah Him 980 40.5
HRRP Taliaoa Pita Ulia 658 27.2 keep
A'ana Alofi No. 1 (2 seats)
HRRP Toleafoa Apulu Fa'afisi 653 16.6
HRRP Aiono Tile Gafa 531 13.5
SDUP Maiava Visekota Peteru 460 11.7 -197
A'ana Alofi No. 2
HRRP Tolofuaivalelei Falemoe Lei’ataua 425 36.0
SDUP Tulilo Paulo Leutele 350 29.7 -75
A'ana Alofi No. 3
HRRP Vaeolenofoafia Tapasu 654 30.9
SPPP Toalepaialii Siu Pose Salesa III 515 24.4 -139
Aiga-I-Le-tai
SDUP Mulipola Oliva 819 32.8
Independent Vaatiuola Lautolo Misi 690 27.6 Keep
Falelatai & Samatau
HRRP Misa Telefoni 852 76.2
Independent Olomoutu Salapu Asalele 266 23.8
Lefaga & Falese'ela
SDUP Le Mamea Ropati 1114 55.5
HRRP Masinalupe Tusipa Masinalupe 565 28.2
Safata (2 members)
HRRP Palusalue Fa’apo II 1019 20.9 Keep
SDUP Tuia Pua Fuatogi Letoa 897 18.4
HRRP Auseugaefa Tuvaifale Vaasatia Poloma Komiti 867 17.8
Si'umu
HRRP Tuu'u Anasi'i Leota 679 56.9
Independent Tupuola Tevaseu Mano Sola Siaosi Hunt 481 40.3
Falealili (2 members)
HRRP Tuiloma Lameko 1186 20.5
SDUP Fuimaono Naoia Tei 1065 18.4
Independent Tusa Misi Tupuola 931 16.1 -255
Lotofaga
HRRP Fiame Naomi Mata'afa 481 65.1
SDUP Fata Siaosi 257 34.8 -224
Lepa
HRRP Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi Unopposed
Aleipata-Itupa-I-luga
HRRP Taua Kitiona Seuala 676 66.1
Independent Fuataga Kasimani 332 32.5
Aleipata Itupa-I-Lalo
SDUP Paepae Kapeli Sua 731 43.0
HRRP Tautoloitua Farani Posala 627 36.9 Keep
Va'a-O-Fonoti
HRRP Leao Talalelei Tuitama 369 24.5
SDUP Togiai Fuatau Eteuati Faiilagi 365 24.3 -4
Anoama'a East
HRRP Moefaauo Lufilufi 628 35.0
HRRP Savea Sione 617 34.4
Anoama'a West
HRRP Fonotoe Pierre Lauofo 1149 55.0
SDUP Leota Leuluaialii Ituau Ale 834 39.9
Fa'asalele'aga No. 1 (2 seats)
HRRP Gatoloaifaana Amataga Alesana-Gidlow 710 14.7
HRRP Tiata Pulufana Saunoa 707 14.6
SDUP Tuilimu Manuele Paletasala 614 12.7 -96
Fa'asalele'aga No. 2
HRRP Pau Sefo Pau 505 32.5
SDUP Leasnapapa Laki 459 29.5 -44
Fa'asalele'aga No. 3
HRRP Unasa Mesi Galo 367 25.4
SDUP Tofa Eteuati Siitia 361 25.0 -6
Fa'asalele'aga No. 4
HRRP Mulitalo Sealiimalietoa Siafausa Vui 689 60.7
SP Su'a Rimoni Ah Chong 436 38.4 -253
Gagaemauga No. 1
HRRP Sala Fata Pinati 1068 64.3
SP Sala Vaimili II Uili Ioane 490 29.5
Gagaemauga No. 2
SDUP Levaopolo Talatonu Va’ai 393 41.9
HRRP Faasootauloa Pati 388 41.4 Keep
Gagaemauga No. 3
Independent Galuvao Viliamu Sepulona 481 37.4
HRRP LEOTA Lu II 464 36.1 Keep
Gagaifomauga No. 1
HRRP Tuilo'a Anitelea 366 38.7
HRRP Gaina Aukusitino 297 31.4
Independent Peseta Toleafoa Lua Nafoi 254 26.8 -112
Gagaifomauga No. 2
HRRP Safuneituuga Paaga Neri 404 31.4
Independent Sooalo Siliga 289 22.5 -125
Gagaifomauga No. 3
HRRP Laauli Leuatea Polataivao 593 60.9
SDUP Segi Usufono Tauanae 294 30.2
Vaisigano No. 1
Independent Va'ai Papu Vailupe 1095 52.9
HRRP Masoe Toga Potoi 802 38.8 keep
Vaisigano No. 2
Independent Motuopuaa Uifagasa Aisoli 597 44.5
HRRP Toleafoa Mauteni Tamasone Metuli II Esera 449 33.4 keep
Falealupo
SDUP Aeau Peniamina 634 73.1
HRRP Solia Sefo Kalolo 167 19.3 keep
Alataua West
Independent Lafaitele Patrick Leiataualesa 421 37.6
SDUP Seuula Ioane 381 34.0 keep
Salega (2 members)
HRRP Tapuai Sepulona Moamanu 861 26.9
HRRP Toomata Alapati Toomata 781 24.4
SDUP Leilua Manuao 626 19.6 -235
Palauli West
SDUP Taua Falaimo 681 37.8
HRRP Afoa Faleulu Mauli 498 27.7 keep
Satupa'itea
SDUP Asiata Sale’imoa Va’ai 591 43.6
HRRP Selesele Tanielu Asiata 565 41.6 keep
Palauli
Independent Toluono Feti 585 36.7
SDUP Laulu Ianeta Tui Laulu 544 34.1 keep
Palauli-Le-Falefa
HRRP Taua Falaimo 1103 69.6
Independent Le Tagaloa Pita 481 30.4
Individual Voters (2 members)
HRRP Niko Lee Hang 1040 30.5
HRRP Hans Joachim Keil 725 21.3
Independent Wilson Edward Lotasiano 414 12.1
Total seats: 49 seats
HRPP seats 35 seats
Non HRPP seats: 17 seats
Close contests: 19 seats
36 seats majority=25 seats
This an analysis of the 2006 election.
Summary of the 31 March 2006 Samoa Fono election results Parties Seats
Human Rights Protection Party 35
Samoan Democratic United Party 10
Independents 4
Samoa Party 0
Samoa Progressive Political Party 0
The Christian Party 0
Total 49
Approx 83,000 votes were cast
Closely contested: votes behind
Vaimauga East 21 votes
Vaimauga West 136
Aana Alofa #1 197
Aana Alofi #2 75
Aana Alofi #3 139
Falealili 255
Lotofaga 224
Vaa o Fonoti 4
Faasaleleaga #1 96
Faasaleleaga #2 44
Faasaleleaga #3 6
Faasaleleaga #4 253
Gagaifomauga #1 112
Salega 235
1797 votes needed
14 closely contested races (less than 300 votes each)
2000 more votes would have changed the results of the election.
From the above statistics
the Vaa o Fonoti and Faasaleleaga #3 races should be the easiest to win.
Vaimauga East, Aana Alofi #2. Faasaleleaga #1 and #2 are the next easiest to win
Vaimauga West, Aana Alofi 31, Aana Alofi #3 and Gagaifomauga #1 the next
And Falealili, Lotofaga, Faasaleleaga #4 and Salega more difficult. The rest are too difficult.