Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Winning the Next Election in Samoa


Samoa Election 2011 strategy

Winning an election has a lot to do with timing and strategy.  I have won an election before where I came out of nowhere to win.  I was an unknown, but at the time when I studied the election landscape there were certain clues as to where the majority of the candidates were going to get their votes and they were all going to the same place.  My strategy was go to the ones they were not courting.  These were the votes I got to win while they all split the certain group they were all trying attract and they all got a small number but not enough to win.  My lesson learned from this was that elections are a numbers games and the winner always seems to know where to get extra votes in case there is a crush of campaigning for the same segment of the public.  Being able to identify the neglected groups is a very important part of winning.

The key to getting the neglected to vote for you is to convince them they are about to become empowered if they vote for you.

Where can we get the extra votes to defeat HRPP?  

HRPP right now are quite overconfident.  The timing is perfect to defeat them.  But we cannot go to the same well they are drawing water from to get our votes.  They have that segment of professional voters sown up.  We must go elsewhere.  Here is my opinion of where to get new votes.

I believe there are 2 segments of the population that are not being targeted by the HRPP. Samoans from overseas and Youth (21-30 years of age).  Everyone is going for the Matais and adults in the villages with their campaign promises and money.  These are what I call professional voters.  They are not necessarily in it for the best candidate only the candidate that gives them best deal prior to the election.  We need to find a new source of votes to tap into.

1. Overseas Samoans with citizenships.
The number of Samoans living overseas in NZ, Australia and the USA is about equal those living in Samoa.  I do not know how many still have their Samoan citizenships but in 2006 the number of Samoans in NZ were 131,100 and about 30,000 in Australia, and over 200,000 in the USA as of the 2000 census.  That means probably half are from Samoa the rest from American Samoa.  So overall there are about 300,000 Samoans from Western Samoa living abroad.  The numbers would translate to about 100,000 adults and of those maybe 50-60% are from Samoa with Samoan citizenships.  So we have an untapped resource for votes in these countries. The difficulty is convincing them to go home and vote next year or any year. They need to pay for their air fare and bring a Faaoso for the family, but it is a very real resource that needs to be developed and motivated to go home and vote.  As I will explain later, another 3-5000 votes spread among the closely contested races in Samoa in 2006 would have changed the outcome of the election.  That’s not many when looking at a population of 50,000 votes.

2. The youth of Samoa
The only statistics regarding the youth from Samoa is that about 60% of the population are between 15 and 64 years of age. So that is around 120,000 total.  The 21-31 age group would in my approximation be about 30,000 to 40,000 strong. These are another group of voters that I believe are not being mobilized into a voting body.  The fact is that there are votes to be gotten we just have to know how to access them.  Another 20,000 votes from this group would devastate the HRPP.  How do we get these young voters to vote, they may not be so difficult because they live in Samoa already, but as with anything in that age group the hormones rule.  If you want the young people to vote they need to be stimulated in a different way from the adults, because they will be voting for an entirely different reason than the adults.  The college students need to be mobilized into a voting group.  They are the key to these young folks becoming registered to vote and actually going to vote.  And the better looking the campaign managers the better chance of the young men and young women coming out to join the organization.  Its just a fact.  I have dealt with youth all my life I know how they think and what moves them.  It will be a fun and active campaign for their votes, but they will follow whomever they feel has the most charisma and attractiveness.  In America the Rock the Vote campaign was promoted by the major stars in the media, rappers like P-Diddy, Jay Z, Kanye West and others were getting the word out for young Africa Americans to vote and they did contribute to Obama’s victory. A similar approach would be quite effective in Samoa if we can get the right parties like Savage, Zipso the Rock and others to join us and the College students at NSU to form an organization that would be a very viable group to mobilize and to organize into a voting lobby.

3. Samoans living overseas who go home to get Samoan citizenships.
This is one area I am still researching but when I was in Samoa in 2003 I talked to immigration and was about to get my Samoan Citizenship based on the fact that my parents were Samoan citizens. I have confirmed that this policy is still is available.  This means for those of us who are first generation foreign immigrants whether in New Zealand or Australia or the USA, you can go home to Samoa and get a Samoan Passport if your parents were Samoan citizens.  If that is the case then my only other question is can they vote or what is the restriction on them voting once they get their citizenship?

4. The Samoan public who normally vote. 
These are the more difficult to change because they have ought into the system of corruption and are as I put it “Professional Voters”.  But there are some who may be fed up of the HRPP and want change they are the ones who need to be converted to our message.

So if these 4 groups listed above are mobilized and that is a big IF, then we have access to over 200,000 extra voters we can use to unseat the HRPP.  Only about 90,000 voters elected the HRPP in the last election.


In the last election the HRPP won 35 seats ad I believe through the course of the aftermath of that election many seats were gained through the legal system that was manipulated by the ruling party to disqualify and remove certain MPs from their seats.  The numbers are very easy to decipher, the number of seats needed by any one party to become the power in Samoa is 25.  That is the magic number.  If a party can win 25 seats then it is over, your party is the winner.  Now it would be better to have more in case someone is disqualified, but in an ideal world 25 seats will get you the reigns of power in Samoa.

So based on this number lets look at the election results from 2006.  The opponents of the HRPP including the Independents and the SDUP won, at the time of the election, 14 seats.  Now if they had gotten 11 more seats and they were a united group they would have won the election.  There were about 15 races that were close.  These were races where the winner won by less than 300 votes.  In some races the winner won by less than 10 votes.  In others it was less than a hundred.  So if we target the close races with additional voters we can change the outcome by inserting 50 to 300 voters extra to win that close race.  In total you are looking at an extra 3000 votes to change the election resuts from landslide for the HRPP to landslide for the opposition.

But the problem is we have no legitimate Opposition.  We need to start an opposition or unite behind a single opposition party and mobilize all these voters that we have to change the outcome of the next election. 

In my opinion the voters from overseas with Samoan citizenships are the more conscientious voters.  They will vote for the right reason.  If they will travel enmasse to Samoa and vote they can make the change next year.  If someone can mobilize the youth in Samoa into a voting body then they can also be an effective voting body.   Can we do this?  Can we mobilize before the next election?  This is what we need to consider and begin making moves towards that objective or for the following election.

For those who would like to start the ball rolling go to the website www.lauakinamulauu.ning.com and become a member and join the facebook page, Lauaki Namulauulu. More information will be available there as we move forward.
We need to focus our efforts on those races that are close.  That is where we can make up the difference and win the elections.

Here is the summary of the last elections.

Vaimauga East
HRRP             Tuisugaletaua Sofara Aveau                    781             36.2    

Independent             Maposua Fealofani                         760             35.3                 -21


Vaimauga West

            HRRP             Anauli Pofitu Fesili                                   1422             20.4    

            SDUP             Sililoto Tolo Tuaifaiva                               1322             19.0    

            SDUP             Patu Ativalu Togi II                                  1286             18.4                 -136

Faleata East
            HRRP             Manuleleua Lalagofaatasi Falaniko Leleua 331             73.4    
            HRRP             Lepou Petelo II                                            120             26.6    

Faleata West
Independent             Lealailepule Rimoni Aiafi                    795             32.4    

HRRP             Ulu Vaomalo Ulu Kini                                     630             25.7                 keep



Sagaga-Le-Falefa
            Independent             Solamalemalo Keneti Sio               738             30.0    
            SDUP             Patea Satini Epati                                       555             22.6                 keep

Sagaga-Le-Usoga
            Independent   Muagututagata Peter Ah Him             980             40.5    

            HRRP             Taliaoa Pita Ulia                                    658             27.2                 keep


A'ana Alofi No. 1  (2 seats)

            HRRP             Toleafoa Apulu Fa'afisi                       653             16.6    

            HRRP             Aiono Tile Gafa                                   531             13.5    
            SDUP             Maiava Visekota Peteru                      460             11.7                 -197

A'ana Alofi No. 2
            HRRP Tolofuaivalelei Falemoe Lei’ataua                   425             36.0    

            SDUP             Tulilo Paulo Leutele                                350             29.7                 -75


A'ana Alofi No. 3

            HRRP             Vaeolenofoafia Tapasu                                654             30.9    

            SPPP             Toalepaialii Siu Pose Salesa III                    515             24.4                 -139

Aiga-I-Le-tai
            SDUP             Mulipola Oliva                                        819             32.8    

            Independent             Vaatiuola Lautolo Misi                690             27.6                 Keep


Falelatai & Samatau
            HRRP             Misa Telefoni                                                     852             76.2    
            Independent             Olomoutu Salapu Asalele                         266             23.8


Lefaga & Falese'ela
            SDUP             Le Mamea Ropati                                        1114             55.5    
            HRRP             Masinalupe Tusipa Masinalupe                   565             28.2                

Safata (2 members)
            HRRP Palusalue Fa’apo II                                                        1019             20.9             Keep
            SDUP             Tuia Pua Fuatogi Letoa                                      897             18.4    
            HRRP Auseugaefa Tuvaifale Vaasatia Poloma Komiti          867             17.8    

Si'umu
            HRRP             Tuu'u Anasi'i Leota                                                    679             56.9    
            Independent             Tupuola Tevaseu Mano Sola Siaosi Hunt         481             40.3    

Falealili (2 members)

            HRRP Tuiloma Lameko                                              1186             20.5    

            SDUP             Fuimaono Naoia Tei                              1065             18.4    
            Independent Tusa Misi Tupuola                                    931             16.1                 -255

Lotofaga

            HRRP Fiame Naomi Mata'afa                     481             65.1    

            SDUP             Fata Siaosi                               257             34.8                 -224

Lepa
            HRRP             Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi                              Unopposed

Aleipata-Itupa-I-luga
            HRRP             Taua Kitiona Seuala                                    676             66.1    
            Independent             Fuataga Kasimani                              332             32.5    

Aleipata Itupa-I-Lalo
            SDUP             Paepae Kapeli Sua                                      731             43.0    

            HRRP             Tautoloitua Farani Posala                         627             36.9                 Keep


Va'a-O-Fonoti
            HRRP             Leao Talalelei Tuitama                                 369             24.5    

            SDUP             Togiai Fuatau Eteuati Faiilagi                      365             24.3                 -4


Anoama'a East
            HRRP             Moefaauo Lufilufi                                         628             35.0    
            HRRP             Savea Sione                                                   617             34.4

Anoama'a West
            HRRP             Fonotoe Pierre Lauofo                                     1149             55.0    
            SDUP             Leota Leuluaialii Ituau Ale                               834             39.9     

Fa'asalele'aga No. 1 (2 seats)

            HRRP Gatoloaifaana Amataga Alesana-Gidlow                 710             14.7    
            HRRP Tiata Pulufana Saunoa                                               707             14.6    
SDUP             Tuilimu Manuele Paletasala                            614             12.7             -96
           
Fa'asalele'aga No. 2
            HRRP Pau Sefo Pau                                                 505             32.5    
            SDUP             Leasnapapa Laki                               459             29.5              -44

Fa'asalele'aga No. 3

            HRRP             Unasa Mesi Galo                                          367             25.4    

            SDUP             Tofa Eteuati Siitia                                         361             25.0            -6

Fa'asalele'aga No. 4

            HRRP             Mulitalo Sealiimalietoa Siafausa Vui     689             60.7    

            SP             Su'a Rimoni Ah Chong                                  436             38.4             -253

Gagaemauga No. 1
            HRRP             Sala Fata Pinati                                               1068             64.3    
            SP             Sala Vaimili II Uili Ioane                                       490             29.5

Gagaemauga No. 2
            SDUP             Levaopolo Talatonu Va’ai                            393             41.9    
            HRRP             Faasootauloa Pati                                         388             41.4    Keep

Gagaemauga No. 3
            Independent             Galuvao Viliamu Sepulona              481             37.4    

            HRRP                         LEOTA Lu II                                   464             36.1            Keep


Gagaifomauga No. 1
            HRRP             Tuilo'a Anitelea                                          366             38.7    
            HRRP             Gaina Aukusitino                                        297             31.4    

Independent Peseta Toleafoa Lua Nafoi                          254             26.8             -112


Gagaifomauga No. 2
            HRRP             Safuneituuga Paaga Neri                            404             31.4    

            Independent Sooalo Siliga                                                  289             22.5            -125


Gagaifomauga No. 3
            HRRP             Laauli Leuatea Polataivao                                         593             60.9    
            SDUP             Segi Usufono Tauanae                                               294             30.2    

Vaisigano No. 1
            Independent Va'ai Papu Vailupe                                      1095             52.9    

            HRRP             Masoe Toga Potoi                                         802             38.8             keep



Vaisigano No. 2
            Independent             Motuopuaa Uifagasa Aisoli                         597             44.5    
            HRRP Toleafoa Mauteni Tamasone Metuli II Esera                  449             33.4   keep

Falealupo
            SDUP             Aeau Peniamina                                                  634             73.1    

            HRRP Solia Sefo Kalolo                                                            167             19.3             keep


Alataua West
            Independent             Lafaitele Patrick Leiataualesa             421             37.6    
            SDUP             Seuula Ioane                                                      381             34.0             keep

Salega (2 members)

            HRRP             Tapuai Sepulona Moamanu                  861             26.9    

            HRRP             Toomata Alapati Toomata                     781             24.4    
            SDUP             Leilua Manuao                                         626             19.6             -235

Palauli West

            SDUP             Taua Falaimo                                               681             37.8    

            HRRP Afoa Faleulu Mauli                                                 498             27.7             keep

Satupa'itea
            SDUP             Asiata Sale’imoa Va’ai                                      591             43.6    

            HRRP Selesele Tanielu Asiata                                                 565             41.6             keep


Palauli
            Independent             Toluono Feti                                            585             36.7    
            SDUP             Laulu Ianeta Tui Laulu                                     544             34.1             keep   

Palauli-Le-Falefa
            HRRP             Taua Falaimo                                          1103             69.6    
            Independent   Le Tagaloa Pita                                         481             30.4    

Individual Voters (2 members)
            HRRP             Niko Lee Hang                                              1040             30.5    
            HRRP             Hans Joachim Keil                                           725             21.3    
            Independent   Wilson Edward Lotasiano                                 414             12.1    


Total seats:                              49 seats
HRPP seats                             35 seats

Non HRPP seats:               17 seats
Close contests:                   19 seats
                                                36 seats                majority=25 seats


This an analysis of the 2006 election.

Summary of the 31 March 2006 Samoa Fono election results Parties             Seats

Human Rights Protection Party                                                                               35
Samoan Democratic United Party                                                                           10
Independents                                                                                                              4
Samoa Party                                                                                                               0
Samoa Progressive Political Party                                                                             0
The Christian Party                                                                                                    0
Total                                                                                                                         49

Approx 83,000 votes were cast

Closely contested:                    votes behind
Vaimauga East                           21     votes
Vaimauga West                        136  
Aana Alofa #1                         197
Aana Alofi #2                            75
Aana Alofi #3                          139
Falealili                                    255
Lotofaga                                  224
Vaa o Fonoti                                4
Faasaleleaga #1                         96
Faasaleleaga #2                         44
Faasaleleaga #3                           6
Faasaleleaga #4                       253
Gagaifomauga #1                    112
Salega                                      235
1797 votes needed
14 closely contested races (less than 300 votes each) 
2000 more votes would have changed the results of the election.


From the above statistics
the Vaa o Fonoti and Faasaleleaga #3 races should be the easiest to win.
Vaimauga East, Aana Alofi #2. Faasaleleaga #1 and #2 are the next easiest to win
Vaimauga West, Aana Alofi 31, Aana Alofi #3 and Gagaifomauga #1 the next
And Falealili, Lotofaga, Faasaleleaga #4 and Salega more difficult.  The rest are too difficult.
This where we concentrate our efforts.
RISE UP!

1 comment:

  1. From Terry Bourke. 1. LeMaea Ropati and I attempted to have overseas vaters allowed to vote, overseas, prior to the 2006 elections. The PM redused that we did not have enough time to tkae the matter to court. 2. Meripa Veit - my email to her os self-eplanatory. 3. Are you presently associated with a political party here? 4. At this stage, I would rather connect by direct email. Presummaubly you have mine. (ger_bou24@yahoo.com) I need yours so i could send you some letters to the editor, emails to Prof.Helen Hughes. ( we are writing up the aid and economic mess that Samoa is in) and other matters. We at present have misused an aid from (ausaid) down with Opposite parties in Austrlia and New Zealand and are talking Amenstry International on over their refussed to consider we have here at the fear that some people are living under, if they should be seen supporting opposition parties, fear for their jobs only, their businessess and their childrens jobs/business. Time is short.

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